Novo Advisors’ latest white paper, Bourbon Industry Insights: Market Dislocation, Inventory Overhang, and Stakeholder Considerations, examines a market that has changed dramatically. After years of expansion, rising barrel values, and aggressive investment in aged inventory, the bourbon and American whiskey market has entered a very different environment, and the implications are significant. Record inventory levels, shifting demand, tighter liquidity, and falling bulk whiskey prices challenge long-held assumptions around barrel values and recoveries.
Drawing on our firm’s role as Chapter 11 Trustee in the Kentucky Owl LLC bankruptcy case, Novo’s analysis shows where risk is building, why carrying costs can materially erode value, and how younger inventory should be viewed in today’s environment. In some categories, bulk aged whiskey prices are estimated to have declined 60% to 70% from peak levels, highlighting just how quickly the market has reset.
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